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Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth



Antibiotic resistance 
Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.[46]
Gulf Stream shutdown 
There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.[47][48]
Demography 
Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization.[49]
Mutual assured destruction 
A full scale Nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting nuclear winter would effectively crush any form of civilization.
Dysgenics 
The unsupported theory of dysgenics, that due to differential fertility, human intelligence may decline to such an extent that civilization collapses.
Finance 
Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, death, and cannibalism.[citation needed] (This scenario happened, to some extent, in the 1930s and 1940s, helping to cause World War II which has, so far, been the only war to involve nuclear weapons. That war (along with its its immediate precursor in Asia, the second Sino-Japanese War) also involved major atrocities and genocide. Such a scenario, in an age of ICBMs and hydrogen bombs, might be even worse in the future.)
Overpopulation 
Some scenarios of simultaneous ecological (food & water production) and economical (see f.e. below) collapses with overpopulation are presumed to lead to a global civil war, where the remaining habitable areas are destroyed by competing humans (so called 'Mad Max'-scenario).
Famine 
As of late 2007, increased farming for use in biofuels, along with world oil prices at over $100 a barrel,[50] has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.[51][52] Food riots have recently taken place in many countries across the world.[53][54][55] An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by race Ug99 is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major concern. Scientists say millions of people face starvation.[56][57][58]
Peak oil 
Oil becomes scarce before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos and discomfort.[59]
IPv4 address exhaustion 
IP addresses become scarce before IPv6 is put in place, leading to global chaos and discomfort.[60]
Experimental accident 
The unlikely creation of a hypothetical microsingularity or exotic matter in particle acceleration experiments, or some unanticipated experimental accident, resulting in destruction of the planet or a large scale disaster. An (impossible) example was that the first test of an atomic weapon might lead to ignition of the atmosphere and global destruction (see Trinity test). Concern currently exists over the Large Hadron Collider triggering a disaster[61], although the scientific community does not take this possibility seriously.[62][63]

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Historical futurist scenarios

Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would happen no earlier than 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.[64]

Many believe that the Maya civilization's Long Count calendar ends abruptly on December 21, 2012. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of using only five places in Long Count Calendar inscriptions. On some monuments the Maya calculated dates far into the past and future but there is no end of the world date. There will be a Piktun ending (a cycle of 13 144,000 day Bak'tuns) on December 21st, 2012. A Piktun marks the end of a 1,872,000 day or approximately 5125 year period and is a significant event in the Maya calendar.

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See also

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Notes

  1. ^ a b Bostrom, Nick (March 2002). "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". Journal of Evolution and Technology 9. 
  2. ^ a b Nick Bostrom, section 4.7.
  3. ^ a b Our Sun. III. Present and Future
  4. ^ a b Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited
  5. ^ Serge Brunier (1999). Majestic Universe: Views from Here to Infinity. Cambridge University Press, p42. ISBN 0521663075. 
  6. ^ Red Giants
  7. ^ SPACE.com - Freeze, Fry or Dry: How Long Has the Earth Got?
  8. ^ Sun, the solar system's only star
  9. ^ a b Nick Bostrom, section 4.10
  10. ^ Date With The Neigbors: Gliese 710 And Other Incoming Stars
  11. ^ Explosions in Space May Have Initiated Ancient Extinction on Earth, NASA.
  12. ^ Twenty ways the world could end suddenly, Discover Magazine
  13. ^ Urban Legends Reference Pages: Legal Affairs (E.T. Make Bail)
  14. ^ Nick Bostrom, section 7.2.
  15. ^ Ken Croswell, Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?, Skyandtelescope.com April 24, 2008, accessed April 26, 2008
  16. ^ Nick Bostrom, section 4.9.
  17. ^ Evolution: Library: HIV Immunity
  18. ^ US West Antarctice Ice Sheet initiative
  19. ^ BBC NEWS | The end of India's green revolution?
  20. ^ Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy
  21. ^ How peak oil could lead to starvation
  22. ^ Eating Fossil Fuels | EnergyBulletin.net
  23. ^ Peak Oil: the threat to our food security
  24. ^ Agriculture Meets Peak Oil
  25. ^ Wilford, John Noble (2006-10-12). Study Links Extinction Cycles to Changes in Earth’s Orbit and Tilt.
  26. ^ Denis Overbye. "Kissing the Earth Goodbye in About 7.59 Billion Years", New York Times, March 11, 2008.
  27. ^ Nick Bostrom, section 4.2.
  28. ^ Bill Joy, Why the future doesn't need us. In:Wired magazine. See also technological singularity.Nick Bostrom 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com
  29. ^ Nick Bostrom 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com
  30. ^ Nick Bostrom 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com
  31. ^ Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, ISBN 0-385-19973-2, available online
  32. ^ Nick Bostrum, section 4.8
  33. ^ Malcolm Perry, Quantum Tunneling towards an exploding Universe? in: Nature, 24 April 1986. available online.
  34. ^ The day the Quantum Vacuum Collapsed
  35. ^ Frank Wilczek, in an e-mail, This available online.
  36. ^ Isaac M. Held, Brian J. Soden, Water Vapor Feedback and Global Warming, In: Annu. Rev. Energy Environ 2000. available online. Page 449.
  37. ^ Vanishing Himalayan Glaciers Threaten a Billion
  38. ^ Big melt threatens millions, says UN
  39. ^ Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists
  40. ^ Glaciers melting at alarming speed
  41. ^ Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed
  42. ^ Global food crisis looms as climate change and population growth strip fertile land
  43. ^ Africa may be able to feed only 25% of its population by 2025
  44. ^ World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future. Paul Raskin. 2006. Boston:Tellus Institute
  45. ^ Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement Orion Kriegman. 2006. Boston:Tellus Institute
  46. ^ Researchers sound the alarm: the multidrug resistance of the plague bacillus could spread
  47. ^ Gulf Stream shutdown
  48. ^ 45% chance Gulf Stream current will collapse by 2100 finds research
  49. ^ Phillip Longman "The Global Baby Bust" in Foreign Affairs magazine.
  50. ^ The global grain bubble
  51. ^ New York Times (2007 September) At Tyson and Kraft, Grain Costs Limit Profit
  52. ^ Forget oil, the new global crisis is food
  53. ^ Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring
  54. ^ Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?
  55. ^ Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits
  56. ^ Millions face famine as crop disease rages
  57. ^ "Billions at risk from wheat super-blight" (2007-04-03). New Scientist Magazine (issue 2598): 6-7. 
  58. ^ Leonard, K.J. Black stem rust biology and threat to wheat growers, USDA ARS
  59. ^ James Howard Kunstler "The Long Emergency", in Rolling Stone Magazine
  60. ^ The Future Without IPv6 - Vox
  61. ^ New Scientist, 28 August 1999: "A Black Hole Ate My Planet"[1]
  62. ^ Safety at the LHC.
  63. ^ J. Blaizot et al, "Study of Potentially Dangerous Events During Heavy-Ion Collisions at the LHC", CERN library record CERN Yellow Reports Server (PDF)
  64. ^ "Isaac Newton, the Apocalypse and 2060 A.D.", by Stephen D. Snobelen, University of King’s College, Halifax

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References

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Further reading

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External links

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